NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Rams vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-135) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.0 targets.
- With a sizeable 20.9% Target% (80th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin rates as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
- Terry McLaurin’s 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a noteable decline in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 67.0 figure.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.4% to 60.8%.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 figure last season.
- Terry McLaurin’s 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a noteable regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 5.8% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
