Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-135) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.0 targets.
With a sizeable 20.9% Target% (80th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin rates as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
Terry McLaurin’s 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a noteable decline in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 67.0 figure.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.4% to 60.8%.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 figure last season.
Terry McLaurin’s 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a noteable regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 5.8% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards