Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-127) after it opened @ 73.5 (-119).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.89 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to garner 9.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
This year, the anemic Bengals defense has yielded a whopping 173.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Cons

Justin Jefferson’s 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a substantial decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 72.0% figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards