Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jayden ReedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (+105) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.6 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, Jayden Reed is forecasted by the model to slot into the 83rd percentile among wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
- The model projects Jayden Reed to be much more involved in his offense’s passing game in this contest (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played).
- With a terrific 70.6% Adjusted Catch Rate (77th percentile) this year, Jayden Reed rates among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (188.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
Cons
- A rushing game script is indicated by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 56.4 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
