Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).

Pros

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 6-point favorite in this week’s game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects Najee Harris to notch 15.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Najee Harris grades out in the 86th percentile for carries this year, comprising 53.9% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
Najee Harris has generated 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (79th percentile).

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.53 seconds per play.
This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has allowed a colossal 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 32nd-worst rate in the NFL.
The New England Patriots safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards