First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 6-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The model projects Najee Harris to notch 15.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Najee Harris grades out in the 86th percentile for carries this year, comprising 53.9% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- Najee Harris has generated 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (79th percentile).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.53 seconds per play.
- This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has allowed a colossal 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 32nd-worst rate in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
