Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Rams vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 84.5 (-115) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 21.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this year (87.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
- Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (107.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Rushing Yards
100
Rushing Yards
