Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 84.5 (-115) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 21.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this year (87.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (107.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
100
Rushing Yards