NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.2 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
- In this week’s game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 76th percentile among running backs with 13.9 rush attempts.
- The model projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be much more involved in his offense’s run game in this week’s game (58.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.4% in games he has played).
- The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
- This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a meager 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 29th-lowest rate in the league.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (30.0).
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.28 mark last year.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
