Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Van JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Rams vs. Raiders
Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-127) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback John Wolford in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The Rams rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.9% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- Van Jefferson has totaled far fewer air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (74.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Van Jefferson’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 47.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
