Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely from EV Insight

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
In this week’s game, Isaiah Likely is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
While Isaiah Likely has received 4.7% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s offense this week at 16.0%.

Cons

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Isaiah Likely has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (5.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
Isaiah Likely’s 17.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 28.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards