Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+104/-128).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-128) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- DK Metcalf has put up quite a few more air yards this year (103.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the league (71.5%) to wideouts this year (71.5%).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
- DK Metcalf has been among the weakest WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.61 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
