Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-105) after it opened @ 91.5 (-114).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 10.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams has posted significantly more air yards this season (124.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
Davante Adams’s 78.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (72.2%).

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Davante Adams’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.8% to 62.8%.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards