Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.2% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- D.J. Moore has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
