Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.2% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
D.J. Moore has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards