Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- The Jets are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Zach Wilson’s 59.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a remarkable improvement in his passing accuracy over last year’s 55.9% figure.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (259.0 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are forecasted by the projection model to call just 64.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Zach Wilson is positioned as one of the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging a measly 6.04 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 7th percentile.
- The Houston cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards
221
Passing Yards
