Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Darnold from EV Insight

Sam DarnoldPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 185.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 185.5 (-115) after it opened @ 186.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.16 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Sam Darnold has been among the worst precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 60.0% Completion%, ranking in the 8th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
194
Passing Yards