NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-110) after it opened @ 243.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- Jared Goff has attempted 37.8 passes per game this year, grading out in the 89th percentile when it comes to QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Detroit Lions profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
- Jared Goff ranks as one of the best QBs in football this year, averaging an impressive 272.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards
222
Passing Yards
