Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-135/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (+110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-114).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.4 passes per game this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Derek Carr has passed for quite a few less yards per game (243.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Derek Carr’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.9% to 62.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards