Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The FTN team uses Adam Pfeifer’s Week 14 fantasy football game-by-game breakdown to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week’s Patriots/Cardinals game.
Two third-place teams battle it out on Monday Night Football in Glendale, Arizona, as the 6-6 Patriots look to go over .500, against the Cardinals, who sit four games below .500 at 4-8. Both clubs have lost their last two games, but the playoff picture looks drastically different for each team. The Cardinals don’t have much of a shot at the NFC playoffs, as they’re 1-6 at home and closer to the NFC cellar than a playoff berth. The Pats are still in decent playoff positioning behind the 7-6 Jets and Chargers for the final wild-card spot in the AFC.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals Prop Bets
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray has been really good as of late, scoring multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games, while also rushing for at least 30 yards in six consecutive games. The Patriots, who play a lot of man coverage, are also allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (24.2), making this a much more favorable spot for Murray than the surface numbers might suggest.
Pick: Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards
-110, PointsBet
Kyler Murray has gone over this rushing number in five out of his last six games, as he’s averaging 54 yards on the ground in that stretch. New England hasn’t faced a ton of running quarterbacks this year, but two of the three they faced easily went over this total. Lamar Jackson had 11 carries for 107 yards and Justin Fields had 82 yards on 14 carries, but the Pats held Josh Allen to 20 yards on eight carries last week. However, the Patriots are still allowing the sixth-most yards per carry to QB’s at 5.69 yards. Overall, Kyler is averaging just under seven carries a game and 41.5 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per carry. Kyler has a great matchup tonight, and all we need is him to hit his averages for us to cash.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Damien Harris missed last week’s game with a thigh injury, but whether he plays or not, Rhamondre Stevenson will remain a top-12 running back. His usage in the passing game is just amazing, as Stevenson has seen at least five targets in each of his last seven games. Stevenson now has a 19.3% target share on the season, the third-highest rate among all running backs. With Harris out last week, Stevenson played an insane 98% of the snaps for the Patriots and handled 16-of-17 running back touches. Expect a similar role if Harris can’t return on Monday. You’d like to see him get in the end zone, but Stevenson’s floor is incredibly high right now. Arizona, meanwhile, is allowing the eighth-most receptions per game to opposing running backs (5.6), as well as the eighth-most receiving yards per game to the position (43.9).
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions
-145, BetMGM
With Damien Harris doubtful tonight against the Cardinals, Rhamondre Stevenson will continue to be the Patriots’ feature back. Stevenson has gone over this catches prop in five of his last six games, averaging 6.5 catches a game over that stretch. He’s been extremely efficient this season, catching about 84% of his targets overall, and he’s seen 7.6 targets a game over his last six games. Overall, Stevenson leads the Pats in catches with 56, and he is tied with Jakobi Meyers for the team lead in targets with 67. The Cardinals rank 30th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe has Stevenson clearing this number with a projected 5.5 catches Monday night versus the Cards D.
