Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach CharbonnetRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Right now, Zach Charbonnet’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-114) after it opened @ 48.5 (-113).
Pros
- At the present time, the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
- In this contest, Zach Charbonnet is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 carries.
- While Zach Charbonnet has garnered 30.4% of his offense’s carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Seattle’s ground game in this week’s game at 69.6%.
- Zach Charbonnet’s ground efficiency (4.71 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (83rd percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.0% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In regards to run support (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Seattle Seahawks ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.
- This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys run defense has been torched for a colossal 4.18 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 23rd-highest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
