Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 90.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 90.5 (-142) after it opened @ 90.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 19.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (87.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
Josh Jacobs has run for quite a few more yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.79 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 40.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards