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Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

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Josh Jacobs

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 13

Raiders vs. Chargers

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 90.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 90.5 (-142) after it opened @ 90.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 19.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
  • Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (87.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
  • Josh Jacobs has run for quite a few more yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.79 yards-per-carry.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 40.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards

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