MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 53.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to accumulate 14.0 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Gus Edwards has been given 43.0% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.36 seconds per snap.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
