Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-131) after it opened @ 53.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Devin Singletary has generated 53.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (77th percentile).
Devin Singletary’s ground efficiency (4.70 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (76th percentile among RBs).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 10th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Devin Singletary has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 71.9% of snaps compared to just 57.9% last season.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 105 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards