Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Cordarrelle Patterson from EV Insight

Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards

Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-104) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cordarrelle Patterson has garnered 42.9% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Cordarrelle Patterson has run for significantly more yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing efficiency has been refined this season, notching 5.25 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.96 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards