Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
- At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
- The projections expect Tanner Hudson to accumulate 4.1 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
- In regards to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league this year.
- Tanner Hudson is positioned as one of the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
- This year, the fierce Jaguars defense has conceded a meager 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
