NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Browns
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 133.2 total plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- The projections expect Puka Nacua to notch 9.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- With a top-tier 31.6% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Puka Nacua has been among the WRs with the highest volume in football.
- With an excellent 85.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (96th percentile) this year, Puka Nacua rates as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s spread suggests a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
- This year, the strong Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a measly 113.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
- The Browns pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.3%) versus wideouts this year (54.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
