Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Parker HesseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Falcons vs. Steelers
Right now, Parker Hesse’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (+140/-180).
The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (+140) after it opened @ 7.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- Parker Hesse has gone out for fewer passes this season (29.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (16.1%).
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.8 plays per game.
- Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a lowly 11.0 yards per game while ranking in the 18th percentile among TEs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards
13
Receiving Yards
