Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- Mark Andrews has run fewer routes this season (94.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.1%).
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to notch 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has totaled a monstrous 92.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among TEs.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.36 seconds per snap.
- Mark Andrews has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (64.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
- Mark Andrews’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
