Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
- This year, the weak Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed a staggering 193.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-most in football.
- This year, the shaky Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 9.22 yards.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Juju Smith-Schuster’s 12.1% Target Share this season conveys a noteable drop-off in his air attack usage over last season’s 18.3% figure.
- After accumulating 44.0 air yards per game last season, Juju Smith-Schuster has significantly declined this season, now sitting at 24.0 per game.
- Juju Smith-Schuster has accumulated many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (62.0).
- Juju Smith-Schuster’s 67.2% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 80.5% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
