Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jayden ReedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Packers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- With an exceptional 9.2 adjusted yards per target (78th percentile) this year, Jayden Reed places as one of the top WRs in the game in football.
- The Chiefs safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Packers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.3 per game) this year.
- This year, the formidable Chiefs defense has given up a feeble 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 7th-best rate in football.
- The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs this year, conceding 7.57 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
