Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-105) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to garner 10.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (115.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Davante Adams’s 74.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for WRs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Davante Adams has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (89.0) this year than he did last year (101.0).
Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 62.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards