Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-143/+112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+112) after it opened @ 258.5 (-113).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.5.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with a remarkable 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 7.42 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards