Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 168.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 168.5 (-110) after it opened @ 164.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Marcus Mariota has passed for a lot more yards per game (169.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 5th-most yards in football (273.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Marcus Mariota has been among the worst precision passers in the NFL this year with a 61.1% Completion%, ranking in the 15th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
211
Passing Yards