Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Falcons vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (+105/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-130) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 6th-most yards in the league (267.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (72.4%).
- The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
