Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kenny Pickett from EV Insight

Kenny PickettPassing Yards

Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (+105/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-130) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 6th-most yards in the league (267.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (72.4%).
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards