Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-135) after it opened @ 233.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 39.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 2nd-most among all QBs.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cowboys, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.5 per game) this year.
- Geno Smith’s 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant regression in his passing precision over last year’s 69.4% rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the league (just 192.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Cowboys defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Cowboys defense this year (64.1% Adjusted Completion%).
- The Cowboys linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
