Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has afforded their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (245.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards