Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All good things must come to an end.
Our three straight hits on moneyline underdogs ended with in Week 12 the Browns’ 29-12 loss at Denver. Let’s get our streak started again in Week 13.
Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.
Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.
Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 13 of the 2023 season.
Week 13 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
New England Patriots +6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
(+220, Bet365)
I have no faith in the Chargers at all.
Head coach Brandon Staley brought a defensive resume to Los Angeles, but he has failed miserably. Los Angeles ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and just lost defensive end Joey Bosa to injured reserve with a foot injury. They have lost three straight games and are operating with a limited offense missing wideouts Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer as well as a less-explosive running back in Austin Ekeler.
While the Patriots have their own struggles, this moneyline is simply too tempting to pass up. New England’s offense is abysmal, ranking just 27th in DVOA, but the Patriots defense is substantially better than the Chargers. Per BetLabs, Staley is just 10-12-1 (45.5%) as a favorite with the Chargers, and has only been a road favorite of six points or more once during his tenure. The Chargers lost that 2021 game outright at Houston, 41-29.
This Chargers team is just 2-5 over their last seven games, with wins over Tyson Bagent’s Bears and Zach Wilson’s Jets. New England has been able to run the ball effectively over the last few weeks, and I still think this Patriots defense can contain a severely shorthanded Chargers offense. New England still ranks second-best at limiting opposing WR1s, which should mean reduced production from Chargers wideout Keenan Allen. If that happens, how will Los Angeles score?
The Pick
Patriots ML (+220)
