2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Week 13 gave us an array of football games on Thursday, Friday and Sunday. It was also an excellent week if you like close games, last-second finishes and a slight break from an onslaught of bye weeks.
Unfortunately, six teams will be on bye once again in Week 14. That is pretty bad timing considering most fantasy leagues end their regular season after Week 14. That means plenty of teams in contention may need to attack the waiver wire to make that final push into the fantasy playoffs.
Check out Week 13’s risers and fallers to see players (and offenses) to target and avoid going forward.
Risers
Aidan O’Connell, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell played an excellent game against a solid Kansas City defense in his return from a broken thumb. The second-year quarterback completed 65.7% of his passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns. His strong performance was largely lost thanks to the controversial ending where his center snapped the ball before he was ready.
It was a strong fantasy performance for O’Connell, who scored 19.6 fantasy points, which had him as a top-12 quarterback through the Sunday slate (plus the four games on Thursday and Friday combined). It was the fourth time in 16 career games that O’Connell scored over 17 fantasy points.
O’Connell becomes a very interesting streaming option in fantasy despite his total lack of rushing ability. Both Brock Bowers (10 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown) and Jakobi Meyers (six receptions for 97 yards) can generate big plays after the catch.
Additionally, the Raiders have one of the best fantasy schedules for the quarterback position this season. Las Vegas still has matchups against three of the bottom-six defenses against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Two of them (Jacksonville and Tampa Bay) are the best matchups for quarterbacks and each team is allowing 22 or more fantasy points per game this season to the position.
If a fantasy manager is desperate for a quarterback with six teams on bye in Week 14, then O’Connell is likely an under-the-radar option to target who can have streaming upside in the playoffs.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Austin Ekeler’s Week 12 concussion landed him on injured reserve, which gave the bulk of the backfield to Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 13. Robinson was only on the field for 38 of 82 snaps (thanks to a blowout victory) but made the most of his opportunities.
Robinson handled 16 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown while adding one reception for six yards. Chris Rodriguez’s stat line will also pop to a lot of box-score watchers (13 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown), but most of his work was limited to the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach.
Going forward, Robinson will headline the Commanders backfield while occasionally losing pass-catching work to Jeremy McNichols. However, the talent gap from Ekeler to McNichols is quite large, which means that Robinson could see his usual part-time role expand a bit more.
He’s a locked-in top-24 running back in fantasy while Ekeler is on the injured reserve given his workload and offensive environment.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen has seen his role expand in Chicago’s offense since Thomas Brown took over the offensive play-calling duties. Over the past four weeks, Allen has seen 31 targets. He’s converted those targets into 18 receptions for 200 yards and three touchdowns.
Chicago has been emphasizing Caleb Williams to get the ball out fast in their new offense, which only helps Allen maintain fantasy relevance. It also helps that Chicago is currently facing some of the top defenses in the league, which forces the team to throw short to avoid pressures and sacks.
Allen’s resurgence has been crucial to the success of Chicago’s offense recently. If he can maintain his current workload, he should have no problem providing consistent WR3 or flex production with WR2 upside if he finds the end zone.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young has been playing really good football since returning to the starting lineup. Over the last two weeks, he has rediscovered the connection with his favorite target in 2023, Adam Thielen.
Thielen torched the Buccaneers in Week 13, catching eight passes for 99 yards and a touchdown (and just missing a second touchdown in the first quarter). In two weeks since returning from the injured reserve, Thielen has racked up 11 receptions on 14 targets for 156 yards.
The veteran receiver is still adept at getting separation in the slot. While it would make sense for Carolina to see what it has in young receivers like Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, Thielen provides a key skill (getting open) for a team that is trying to figure out their young quarterback.
He will continue to have a role in this offense, even if it comes at the expense of other players who may be with the team longer.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have started to pump up their passing production, which has been helpful for Ladd McConkey. Over the last three weeks, McConkey has racked up 21 receptions (on 27 targets) for 323 yards. The rookie has three straight weeks with at least 14 fantasy points.
McConkey is in the middle of a highly productive stretch that has seen him earn at least six targets and five receptions in five of his last six games. He’s had at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last six contests.
Some small injuries are piling up for McConkey (including a knee injury suffered against Atlanta), but if he’s on the field, he has emerged as Justin Herbert’s favorite weapon in the passing attack.
Monitor the knee issue, but don’t be afraid to start McConkey if he’s able to log a relatively clean week of practice before a matchup against Kansas City.
Fallers
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence was able to grit his way back into the starting lineup despite an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Reports indicated that he wasn’t going into the game at 100% health but was good enough to play.
Lawrence was struggling to find his groove (4-of-10 passing for 41 yards and an interception) before suffering a brutal shot to the head on a slide that led to a significant concussion.
It wouldn’t be surprising if this was the injury that prompted Jacksonville to shut down Lawrence for the season. The team has nothing to play for (except draft positioning) and has no reason to subject their franchise player to more punishment.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins has not performed well in the Falcons’ last three matchups against good defenses.
In his three games since Week 10 (Atlanta was on a bye in Week 12), Cousins has completed 62.9% of his passes for 724 yards with zero touchdowns and six interceptions. He has scored fewer than 11 fantasy points in three straight contests.
Atlanta is also currently mired in a three-game losing streak that has turned a strong NFC South division lead into a competition with the Buccaneers and Saints. If Cousins continues to struggle, the team may feel incentivized to see what first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. can provide to the offense.
Things won’t get much better for Atlanta in Week 14 with Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense attacking Cousins in the pocket. The chance for him to have a big revenge week looms large, but there has been nothing to suggest Cousins can muster that kind of production in the last three weeks.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins was arguably the best running back value in fantasy drafts to start the season. The veteran running back had 158 carries for 766 yards and eight touchdowns along with 28 receptions (on 34 targets) for 134 yards. Dobbins seemed to be healthy and was taking full advantage of his new surroundings as the lead running back in Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s rushing attack.
Unfortunately, Dobbins suffered a knee injury in Week 12. While the injury could have been worse (MCL sprain), it did force Dobbins onto the injured reserve, which means he will miss the next four games (including Week 13).
For Dobbins’ sake, this was a smart move to get him healthy for the team’s playoff run. From a fantasy standpoint, it is a nightmare. Dobbins will be out of commission through at least Week 16 and could be out longer if the Chargers can keep a healthy lead in the AFC Wild Card race.
If you have an IR spot, then it is fair to stash Dobbins in hopes of a potential big week in the fantasy championships, but for most, he’s droppable for a player who will provide some level of fantasy value in the playoffs.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
There was hope that the injury to Stefon Diggs would lead to a high target share for Tank Dell to salvage a poor fantasy season. Unfortunately, that just hasn’t come to fruition. The recent return of Nico Collins from the injured reserve has almost made Dell unplayable in fantasy.
Over the last two weeks, Dell has produced just four receptions on nine targets for 95 yards. He was especially bad in a matchup tailored to his strengths in Week 13, totaling just one reception for 23 yards against Jacksonville’s zone-heavy defense.
Houston’s passing attack has had far more success over the last two weeks utilizing Collins (13 receptions for 211 yards and a touchdown) and Dalton Schultz (seven receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown) instead.
Houston’s offense has been a clear disappointment relative to expectations this season. Many hoped that Dell could recover from his 2023 ankle injury (and offseason shooting) to provide value as the “cheapest” wide receiver in the group. With just four weeks to go in the season, that doesn’t look promising.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy managers rejoiced in Week 8 when Kyle Pitts appeared to finally turn the corner in fantasy with four receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, the results have been brutal since.
Pitts has scored just 13.5 fantasy points in four games since his Week 8 explosion. That includes three games below three fantasy points (including a zero in Week 13).
Even more concerning is the recent usage in the offense. Pitts is only on the field for passing downs and was outsnapped by Charlie Woerner in Week 13 (47 to 33). Pitts has been on the field for less than 55% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the last five games.
There was hope before the season that a new coaching staff could finally unlock Pitts after years of frustration with Arthur Smith. Unfortunately, it appears that another staff has determined that the tight end is at his best when he’s not a full-time player on the field.
