Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+112/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+112) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the present time, the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (44.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Raiders.
- In this game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.9 carries.
- Out of all RBs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 100th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 81.4% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
- The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year in run support.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 4.52 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a heavy -9.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The projections expect the Raiders to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (only 53.7 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Josh Jacobs’s 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a significant decrease in his rushing talent over last season’s 100.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards
88
Rushing Yards
