Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-125) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- In this game, Travis Kelce is projected by the projections to position himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 9.8 targets.
- Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 24.9% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- The Raiders pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (81.8%) versus TEs this year (81.8%).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- After accumulating 67.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has undergone a big decline this year, now boasting 60.0 per game.
- Travis Kelce’s 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 80.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
