Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-145/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-145) after it opened @ 74.5 (-120).
Pros
- The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.9 per game) this year.
- In this game, Stefon Diggs is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.8 targets.
- Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 30.3% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- When talking about air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among WRs this year, totaling a striking 103.0 per game.
Cons
- With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- Stefon Diggs’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.62 mark last season.
- This year, the fierce Eagles pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 2.9 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
