Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-145/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-145) after it opened @ 74.5 (-120).

Pros

The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.9 per game) this year.
In this game, Stefon Diggs is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.8 targets.
Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 30.3% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When talking about air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among WRs this year, totaling a striking 103.0 per game.

Cons

With respect to a defense’s effect on tempo, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the model projects the Buffalo Bills as the most sluggish in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
Stefon Diggs’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.62 mark last season.
This year, the fierce Eagles pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 2.9 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards