Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-130) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accumulate 4.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has put up a colossal 31.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this season (63.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (82.5%).
Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 62.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards