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Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

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Keenan Allen

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 12

Chargers vs. Ravens

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-104) after it opened @ 86.5 (-117).

Pros

  • The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 133.6 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
  • Keenan Allen has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (104.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons

  • The predictive model expects the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 134.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
  • This year, the fierce Ravens defense has allowed the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a puny 6.5 yards.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft from EV Insight Next NFL Circa Millions Picks: Week 12
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