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November 16, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-105) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).

Pros

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to run on 45.0% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (143 per game) versus the Panthers defense this year.

Cons

The model projects the Cowboys offensive gameplan to skew 6.4% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Tony Pollard has been less successful in grinding out extra ground yardage this season, averaging 2.70 yards-after-contact vs a 3.82 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards