Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The projections expect James Cook to accrue 12.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
James Cook has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this season (50.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
This year, the anemic New York Jets run defense has given up a massive 135.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 6th-most in football.

Cons

At the moment, the 4th-least run-heavy team in the league (32.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bills.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the significance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
James Cook’s 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this season represents a noteable decrease in his running talent over last season’s 5.8 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards