Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
James Conner has been much less involved in his team’s offense this year, playing on just 61.9% of snaps vs 79.5% last year.
James Conner’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a meaningful progression in his running prowess over last year’s 61.0 rate.

Cons

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
The Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.
This year, the weak Texans run defense has conceded a monstrous 3.58 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-largest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards