Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
- The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- James Conner has been much less involved in his team’s offense this year, playing on just 61.9% of snaps vs 79.5% last year.
- James Conner’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a meaningful progression in his running prowess over last year’s 61.0 rate.
Cons
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- The Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.
- This year, the weak Texans run defense has conceded a monstrous 3.58 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-largest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
