Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).
Pros
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
- When talking about run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year.
- With a terrific rate of 118.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Devon Achane places as one of the top pure rushers in football this year.
- With a stellar rate of 12.47 adjusted yards per carry (99th percentile), Devon Achane rates among the top running backs in football this year.
- This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been gouged for a staggering 139.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in football.
Cons
- At the moment, the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league (35.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
- The Raiders defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
