Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-139) after it opened @ 77.5 (-113).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
- At the present time, the 9th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (41.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Texans.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This year, the weak Cardinals run defense has surrendered a whopping 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-most in football.
Cons
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- In regards to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
- Devin Singletary’s 41.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a noteable drop-off in his running skills over last year’s 54.0 mark.
- Devin Singletary’s 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a remarkable diminishment in his rushing skills over last year’s 4.8 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards
93
Rushing Yards
