Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).
Pros
- With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 19.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey’s 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year’s 68.0 figure.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- This year, the formidable Buccaneers run defense has allowed a feeble 92.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
