Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has garnered 57.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends project as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Chargers are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 32.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Austin Ekeler has rushed for many fewer yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 99 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards