Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has garnered 57.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends project as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Chargers are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 32.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- Austin Ekeler has rushed for many fewer yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 99 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
